WTI原油周四收$96.35/桶（-$1.91，-1.94%），布伦特收$102.58。跌幅小于周三（-5.66%），显示抛压在减弱。但周五亚洲早盘，WTI反弹至$97.55（+$1.20, +1.3%），投资者对和谈能否取得突破产生怀疑。OPEC+预计7月提高产量目标——即使霍尔木兹海峡持续中断。中国削减原油进口叠加美国出口增加，"打乱了多头节奏"。WTI本周仍有望录得7%以上的周跌幅。 WTI settled at $96.35/bbl (-$1.91, -1.94%), Brent at $102.58. The decline moderated vs Wednesday's -5.66%, suggesting selling pressure is easing. However, Friday Asian morning saw WTI bounce to $97.55 (+$1.20, +1.3%) as investors doubted whether talks can achieve a breakthrough. OPEC+ plans to raise output targets in July — even with continued Hormuz disruptions. China cutting crude imports + rising US exports 'disrupted the long momentum.' WTI is still on track for a 7%+ weekly decline.

⚡ 逻辑演变：周三的暴跌在今日得到部分确认但未继续加速。$96的WTI已接近战前水平（约$95），技术上存在强烈支撑。但OPEC+增产与中国需求放缓是结构性的空头力量，即使伊朗停火达成，这些因素也会抑制油价上涨空间。布伦特仍在$102——高于$100的心理关口，但摇摇欲坠。 ⚡ Logic evolution: Wednesday's crash was partially confirmed today but didn't accelerate. $96 WTI is approaching pre-war levels (~$95), creating technical support. But OPEC+ supply increase and China's demand slowdown are structural bearish forces — even if Iran achieves a ceasefire, these factors cap oil upside. Brent at $102 still trades above the $100 psychological level, but precariously.

S&P 500收7,445.72（+0.17%），Nasdaq收26,293.10（+0.09%），Dow Jones收50,285.66（+0.55%）。欧洲Stoxx 600收620.56（+0.04%）——盘中波动剧烈，最终微涨。今日涨幅远小于周三的全面反弹（S&P +1.08%），显示市场在伊核僵局下转为谨慎。投资者对伊朗停火谈判保持"有条件的乐观"——方向向上但动能衰竭。 S&P 500 closed at 7,445.72 (+0.17%), Nasdaq at 26,293.10 (+0.09%), Dow Jones at 50,285.66 (+0.55%). European Stoxx 600 closed at 620.56 (+0.04%) — volatile intraday, barely positive. Today's gains were far smaller than Wednesday's broad rally (S&P +1.08%), as markets turned cautious on the Iran nuclear stalemate. Investors maintain 'conditional optimism' on Iran ceasefire talks — directionally up but momentum is fading.

⚡ 逻辑演变：周三的"和谈暴涨"在今日被"僵局稀释"。涨速骤降说明两点：（1）周三的反弹已经透支了短期乐观情绪；（2）市场需要看到实质性的协议文本才能继续上行。科技股受NVDA盘后-1.6%压制，Nasdaq涨幅最小（+0.09%），Dow的+0.55%相对最强——价值/防御板块重新占据优势。 ⚡ Logic evolution: Wednesday's 'peace rally' was 'diluted by stalemate' today. The deceleration confirms (1) Wednesday's rally already priced in short-term optimism and (2) markets need substantive deal text to push higher. Tech was capped by NVDA AH -1.6%, with Nasdaq barely positive (+0.09%). Dow's +0.55% was strongest — value/defensive sectors regaining advantage.

Nvidia Q1财报营收和盈利均超预期，但在常规交易时段仅微涨后，盘后跌-1.6%。核心问题：营收指引虽高但"beat已定价"——过去几周NVDA的大幅上涨已经提前消化了强劲财报。分析师开始将关注点转向AI叙事能否延续到2027-2028年，即资本支出周期的可持续性。值得注意的是，周三宣布的$800亿回购和股息从1美分上调至25美分仍未充分反映在股价中。 Nvidia Q1 beat on both revenue and profit, but after a modest regular session gain, stock fell -1.6% after-hours. Core issue: guidance was strong but 'beat was priced in' — NVDA's big run-up over prior weeks had already discounted strong earnings. Analysts are shifting focus to whether the AI narrative can sustain into 2027-2028 — the durability of the capex cycle. Notably, Wednesday's $80B buyback and dividend hike from $0.01 to $0.25 remain under-reflected in the price.

⚡ 逻辑演变：NVDA的"好财报、差股价"是典型的"买预期、卖事实"。这并不意味着NVDA的长期基本面恶化，但说明短期筹码需要充分换手。$800亿回购会在未来12个月形成坚实的价格底部。SOX半导体指数今日未延续周三+4.5%的涨势——AI板块在消化财报后进入观望模式。 ⚡ Logic evolution: NVDA's 'good earnings, bad stock' is classic 'buy the rumor, sell the fact.' This doesn't mean long-term fundamentals deteriorated, but short-term positioning needs to reset. The $80B buyback creates a solid price floor over the next 12 months. SOX didn't extend Wednesday's +4.5% — the AI sector entered a watching mode after digesting earnings.

Walmart今天发出利润预警，销售增长放缓，预计利润将低于预期。消费者正减少加油量，高油价在严重挤压家庭预算。同时，抵押贷款利率跃升至超过6.5%——伊朗战争开始以来的最高水平。这一组合信号表明：美国消费者正在承受油价+利率的双重冲击，消费动能从"韧性"向"脆弱"切换。WMT股价今日承压下跌，零售板块整体走弱。 Walmart issued a profit warning today, with slowing sales growth and expected profit miss. Consumers are reducing gasoline consumption as high oil prices severely squeeze household budgets. Meanwhile, mortgage rates jumped to over 6.5% — the highest since the Iran war began. This combination signals that the US consumer is absorbing a dual shock of oil + rates, with spending momentum shifting from 'resilient' to 'fragile.' WMT stock declined today and the retail sector weakened broadly.

⚡ 逻辑演变：Walmart作为美国消费的"风向标"，其利润预警比任何宏观指标都更有说服力。消费者"减少加油量"是价格弹性的经典体现——高油价正在改变行为，而不仅仅是压缩利润率。抵押贷款利率突破6.5%则指向房地产市场的二次降温。这对S&P的消费板块（可选消费+必需消费）构成重大逆风，即使油价自高点回落了10+美元。 ⚡ Logic: Walmart, as the 'weathervane' of US consumption, is more persuasive than any macro indicator. 'Reduced gas purchases' is a classic price-elasticity signal — high oil is changing behavior, not just compressing margins. Mortgage rates above 6.5% point to secondary cooling in housing. This creates major headwinds for the consumer sector (discretionary + staples), even with oil down $10+ from highs.

量子计算股今日全线飙升，据MarketWatch报道，川普政府据悉将购买量子计算技术。与此同时，欧洲卫星通信公司Eutelsat暴涨22%，OHB、SES等欧洲卫星股跟涨。这一波动的直接催化剂是SpaceX IPO预期升温（估值$1.75万亿），投资者押注太空经济将从SpaceX公开上市中受益。这是典型的"板块轮动+新叙事"行情——资金从已经拥挤的AI赛道转向量子计算和太空经济等前沿领域。 Quantum computing stocks surged across the board today, with MarketWatch reporting that the Trump administration is reportedly buying quantum computing technology. Meanwhile, European satellite company Eutelsat soared 22%, with OHB and SES following higher. The direct catalyst is SpaceX IPO expectations heating up ($1.75T valuation), with investors betting the space economy will benefit from SpaceX's public listing. This is classic 'sector rotation + new narrative' action — capital rotating from crowded AI trades to frontier sectors like quantum and space.

⚡ 逻辑演变：量子计算和太空是两个不同的叙事，但共享同一个驱动因素——"政府/机构级采购"预期。川普政府购买量子计算可视为AI投资的自然延伸。SpaceX IPO则是今年最受期待的上市事件之一。Eutelsat的暴涨表明市场急于为太空经济板块定价，且对SpaceX的关联效应高度敏感。 ⚡ Logic: Quantum computing and space are two different narratives sharing a common driver — 'government/institutional procurement' expectations. Trump admin buying quantum computing can be seen as a natural extension of AI investment. SpaceX IPO is one of the most anticipated listings this year. Eutelsat's surge shows markets are eager to price the space economy and are highly sensitive to SpaceX correlation effects.

日本4月核心通胀率降至4年低点。这意味着日本央行（BOJ）将有更多空间维持宽松货币政策。在日元连续走弱、逼近干预区间的背景下，低通胀数据为BOJ提供了不加息的理由。这对日元空头是进一步鼓励，但对日本进口商和消费者而言，日元贬值叠加高油价是双重痛苦。 Japan's core inflation slowed to a 4-year low in April. This gives the Bank of Japan more room to maintain accommodative policy. Against the backdrop of the yen's continuous weakening toward intervention levels, low inflation gives BOJ a reason not to hike. This further emboldens yen bears but creates a double pain of weak yen + high oil for Japanese importers and consumers.

⚡ 逻辑演变：低通胀 → 宽松延续 → 日元继续走弱 → 进口成本上升 → 抑制消费。这是一个"滞胀螺旋"的开始迹象。BOJ面临的困境是：加息可以保护日元但会压制本就脆弱的经济；不加息则日元继续贬值、进口通胀加剧。USD/JPY的走势将成为下周G7的焦点议题之一。 ⚡ Logic: Low inflation → continued easing → yen weakens further → import costs rise → consumption suppressed. Signs of a 'stagflation spiral' emerging. BOJ's dilemma: hiking protects the yen but pressures a fragile economy; not hiking continues yen depreciation and import inflation. USD/JPY trajectory will be a key G7 topic next week.

SpaceX今日取消了从德克萨斯发射星舰V3的计划，原因未公布。这是星舰系列的最新版本，此次取消影响太空行业的短期情绪。G7财长会议在巴黎继续第二天会程，公共债务和债市波动仍是核心议题。美10年期收益率4.575%，日内微降0.8bp，从周二高点（4.669%）回落。Fed 4月会议纪要显示更多官员支持为"可能的加息做准备"——周二已释放的消息今天继续发酵。 SpaceX canceled its Starship V3 launch from Texas today, reason undisclosed. This latest Starship variant cancellation affects near-term sentiment in the space sector. G7 finance ministers continued their second day in Paris, with public debt and bond volatility as core topics. US 10Y yield at 4.575%, down 0.8bp on the day, retreating from Tuesday's high of 4.669%. The Fed April minutes showing growing support for 'possible rate hike preparations' — news from Tuesday — continued to percolate today.

⚡ 逻辑演变：星舰取消对SpaceX IPO的叙事是一个小负面，但市场反应有限。G7会议无实质性联合行动声明，符合"各自管理波动性"的立场。Fed鹰派信号被油价下跌部分对冲，但加息概率50%的定价在今日继续持稳。 ⚡ Logic: Starship cancellation is a minor negative for the SpaceX IPO narrative, but market reaction was limited. G7 offered no substantive joint action statement, consistent with the 'manage your own volatility' stance. Fed hawkish signals were partially offset by oil's decline, but the ~50% rate hike probability held steady today.